Home Page |
Home Page for Mobile
africafocus by e-mail - analysis that goes beyond the news
africafocus.org - your first stop for Africa policy issues on the web
http://www.africafocus.org/docs11/ict1111.php
AfricaFocus Bulletin
"With over 620 million mobile connections as of September
2011, Africa has overtaken Latin America to become the
second largest mobile market in the world, after Asia. Over
the past 10 years, the number of mobile connections in
Africa has grown an average of 30% per year and is forecast
to reach 735 million by the end of 2012." - GSMA African
Mobile Observatory
It is no longer news that mobile phone usage and
applications in Africa have been growing rapidly. But a new
report released this month from the GSM Association (GSMA),
the operator-led trade association representing the global
mobile industry, has fuller documentation, along with a
prediction that the rapid pace of expansion is set to
continue for some years to come. Although the figures quoted
above overestimate the number of users, because of multiple
connections by some users, the growth is still
extraordinary. Its implications go far beyond the
telecommunications sector, as Africa is also pioneering new
mobile uses.
This AfricaFocus Bulletin contains the executive summary and
brief excerpts from the full report. The full report, which
also contains extensive tables and graphs not easily
reproducible here, is available at: http://www.gsmworld.com / direct URL:
http://tinyurl.com/cvvrewd
One interesting table that is included below, however, lists
the top 25 countries in Africa by mobile connections, along
with their percentage of the market. The top five are
Nigeria, with 89 million connections; Egypt, with 81
million; South Africa, with 59 million; and Algeria and
Morocco, with 37 million each. They are followed by Kenya,
Sudan (including both North and South), Tanzania, Ghana,
Cote d'Ivoire, Uganda, DR Congo, Tunisia, Ethiopia, Libya,
Angola, Cameroon, Mali, Senegal, Zimbabwe, Benin,
Mozambique, Burkina Faso, Zambia, and Madagascar.
For previous AfricaFocus Bulletins on information and
communication technology issues, and links to other sources,
visit http://www.africafocus.org/ictexp.php
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Several weeks ago I was interviewed about AfricaFocus on on
Walter Turner's Africa Today program at KPFA in the
California Bay Area. The interview ran on November 14, and
is available for listening (streaming or download of audio
file at http://www.kpfa.org/archive/id/75153
++++++++++++++++++++++end editor's note+++++++++++++++++
November 2011
For further information please contact: info@gsm.org, GSMA
London Office, T +44 (0) 20 7356 0600 This is the first African edition in the GSMA Mobile
Observatory series. This Observatory provides a
comprehensive review of the African mobile communications
industry. Included are the latest statistics and market
developments, as a reference point for mobile industry
participants, policy makers and other interested
stakeholders. It covers the state of the industry, including
the evolution of competition, innovation in new products,
services and technologies and the industry's contribution to
social and economic development in Africa.
The mobile industry in Africa is booming.
With over 620 million mobile connections as of September
2011, Africa has overtaken Latin America to become the
second largest mobile market in the world, after Asia. Over
the past 10 years, the number of mobile connections in
Africa has grown an average of 30% per year and is forecast
to reach 735 million by the end of 2012.
Fierce competition has driven down prices and increased
penetration.
Price wars have been common across the continent as
operators compete for market share with innovative revenue
and pricing options - operators have reduced prices an
average of 18% between 2010 and 2011, making mobile
connectivity more broadly affordable to the masses. 96% of
subscriptions are pre-paid with voice services currently
dominating, however the uptake of data services is
increasing rapidly. For example in Kenya data revenues,
including SMS, have increased at a remarkable 67% CAGR over
the last 4 years and now represent 26% of total revenues.
The Mobile Industry in Africa contributes US$56bn to the
regional economy, equivalent to 3.5% of total GDP.
In particular, the mobile ecosystem is estimated to employ
over 5 million Africans and is contributing to bringing
mobile services to customers right across the continent.
However there remains huge untapped potential - 36% of
Africans, within the 25 largest African mobile markets
(A25), still have no access to mobile services. Projections
indicate that raising the whole region to 100% mobile
penetration (see figure 3), could add an additional $35
billion in aggregate GDP to the region, equivalent to a
further 2% increase.
The mobile industry in Africa is an enabler of economic
development far beyond its immediate domain.
Mobile operators have driven the emergence of a unique
industry in innovative mobile services in Africa. Mobile
Value-Added Services have been launched throughout the
continent to enable and support agriculture, banking,
education, healthcare and gender equality. In particular,
the emergence of mobile money transfers and mobile banking
puts Africa firmly at the forefront of the global Mobile
Money industry. Beyond mobile services, the mobile industry
is also contributing to rural electrical distribution with
lower carbon emissions and facilitating the work of NGOs
across the continent. Many African governments have
prioritized ICT policy as a key driver for development.
Key issues for future growth
For the mobile industry to continue to serve as a catalyst
for growth, sufficient spectrum is needed for the provision
of mobile broadband services.
African countries have currently allocated considerably less
spectrum to mobile services than developing countries in
Europe, the Americas and Asia. Allocating the Digital
Dividend spectrum to mobile services will enable the mobile
industry to accelerate its efforts to bring connectivity and
information to large swathes of rural Africa.
African governments are slowly shifting to more transparent
ICT regulation, but limited spectrum availability remains a
key barrier to sustaining long term growth. The GSMA
supports a technology neutral approach to the use of all
existing mobile bands; governments in Africa should allow
deployment of mobile technologies that can technically coexist
according to what are relevant internationally
harmonised bands for their region. The GSMA encourages
governments in the region to establish clear guidelines for
spectrum planning, licensing, pricing and re-farming.
African governments must clarify future spectrum
availability of both the coverage bands (700, 800, and 900
MHz bands) and the capacity bands (1800, 2100, 2300, 2600,
and 3500 MHz bands).
Regulation practices must continue to improve to ensure the
effective long term development of the mobile sector.
64% of African countries remain in the bottom quartile of
the World Economic Forum's political/regulatory index. GSMA
research indicates that total tax intake of governments
could be boosted, by reducing mobile specific taxes across
Africa. Universal access has also been promoted by most
African governments using taxation schemes, but there is
limited transparency around the distribution of funds.
By working in partnership, mobile operators and African
governments can continue the remarkable growth story of the
African mobile industry. The benefits that mobile services
have already brought to hundreds of millions of Africans can
be extended to those who have yet to connect. By so doing,
the African continent can continue to bring not only
communication services, but also improved financial
services, healthcare and education to its people and drive
an increase in the economic wealth and development.
Africa comprises a vast region of 54 countries covering 30
million square kilometres and 1.0 billion people. Referring
to Africa as one continent would be to overlook the
intricacies and complexities of life within a huge diversity
of peoples, languages and cultures within and across
national boundaries. It would be impossible to cover all
these countries in the detail and thoroughness that they
deserve. Therefore within this report we consider the 25
countries which contain 91% of the continent's mobile
connections. These markets (hereafter referred to as the
A25) are extremely diverse economically, culturally,
geographically and politically and are therefore a good
representation of Africa as a whole.
Figure 1: Africa 25 and total mobile connections (2011 YTD)
The Mobile Observatory series includes
reports on the large and mature European market, the
extensive and dynamically evolving market of the AsiaPacific
region and the fast growing Latin-American region.
These reports underline the industry's commitment to
transparency and to engaging with a wide set of stakeholders
in planning its future direction.
This is the first African edition in the GSMA Mobile
Observatory series. This Observatory provides a
comprehensive review of the African mobile communications
industry. Included are the latest statistics and market
developments, as a reference point for mobile industry
participants, policy makers and other interested
stakeholders. It covers the state of the industry, including
the evolution of competition, innovation in new products,
services and technologies and the industry's contribution to
social and economic development in Africa.
The report integrates data from a wide range of existing
sources to provide a comprehensive picture of the African
mobile industry. These include public sources such as the
ITU, World Bank and research by National Regulatory
Authorities as well as commercial providers such as Wireless
Intelligence, Informa, Gartner, Buddecomm and IDC. Where
appropriate, data from different sources has been combined
to show more complete industry trends. The regular
geographic scope of this study consists of the 54 countries
of Africa -- both North Africa and sub-Saharan Africa. All
references to 2011 YTD correspond to the first nine months
of 2011. All references to African statistics refer to the
largest 25 African countries by number of mobile connections
unless stated otherwise. This report was commissioned by the
GSMA and developed independently by A.T. Kearney.
Key Messages
3.1. Market dynamics
The significant growth in mobile subscribers in Africa has been driven by several key factors:
These factors have contributed to a growth in mobile population penetration across Africa from 2% in 2000 to more than 57% ten years later (see Figure 3). 2010 was a landmark year for Africa as mobile penetration passed 50% for the first time. Despite this impressive growth, these figures go to underline the further growth potential and necessary investment required to connect the remaining population. Whilst mobile connection growth is expected to slow to 11% CAGR from 2011 to 2015, in several markets such as Zimbabwe and Rwanda connections are still growing at 50% p.a. from a low existing customer base. By 2015, the total number of connections is estimated to reach 84% of the total African population. ... Mobile networks are leading the expansion of broadband internet access across Africa, with broadband access today largely confined to a small minority of the more developed Africa countries. Poor infrastructure remains a key barrier to the expansion of broadband. However, the roll-out of 3G services has provided a viable alternative to fixed broadband, in the form of internet enabled handsets and wireless modems/dongles. Whilst penetration rates are still low, to date growth in mobile broadband has been exponential and the explosive growth is expected through to at least 2015. The number of connections has increased from c. 0.2m in 2006 to c. 15m by the end of 2010 and is expected to hit over 230m by 2015 (see Figure 9). Such is the growth predicted, that Cisco estimates that by 2015, sub-Saharan Africa will have more people with mobile access than with access to electricity at home. 6. Corporate sustainability: The environmental and social impactKey Messages
6.1. The social impact of the mobile industryBy 2015, it is predicted that sub-Saharan Africa will have more people with mobile network access than have electricity at home. As mobile service penetration across Africa begins to exceed that of other core infrastructure, the mobile industry is beginning to have an increasingly significant impact on society. As well as improving communication, the mobile phone is facilitating improvements in agriculture, banking, education, healthcare and the empowerment of women. m-Agri The International Food Policy Research Institute estimates that 65% of the population in sub-Saharan Africa relies on subsistence farming. Crop yields can be highly variable which can severely strain farmers' ability to feed themselves and their families. One of the key problems is that poor farmers lack access to vital agricultural information, training and advice on topics such as pests, diseases, weather, fertilizers and proven farming practices. Mobile connectivity offers a new opportunity to bridge this gap and to connect the farmer with up-to-date agricultural knowledge. In Kenya, where 70% of the population is employed in agriculture, the GSMA Development Fund established M-Kilimo, a dedicated helpline providing information and advice to small-hold farmers. Typically, the helpline experts dealt with four main topics of enquiry:
Since the dialogue between the farmer and the helpline expert occurs in real time, most problems can be resolved during the call. However, complex queries sometimes need more time and M-Kilimo undertakes to try to resolve these more complicated issues within a 24hr period. m-Banking Mobile banking services have been widely publicized as revolutionizing access to financial services to low income groups. In Kenya in 2007, Safaricom's M-Pesa money transfer service was the first to launch. In the first 30 months of service, 8.5m Kenyans registered50 as M-Pesa users and US$3.7bn worth of transfers were made (approximately 10% of Kenyan GDP). M-Pesa allows users to deposit, transfer and withdraw cash via Safaricom's M-Pesa agents, of which there were 18,000 in April 2010, compared to 491 bank branches. These developments enable subscribers to transfer money to family members, make a payment for goods or services or simply save their money in a more secure form than cash. Money transfer services have since been launched by many other mobile operators in several other countries including: Ghana, Tanzania, Uganda, Nigeria and South Africa. Since the original launch of M-Pesa, the mobile money industry has continued to develop in many African countries. Today, it has reached a level of sophistication not seen anywhere else in the world. In addition to transaction services, Africans are now able to use mobile banking to access savings accounts, agriculture insurance, pensions, health insurance, micro-finance loans and life insurance products. For example, Safaricom in partnership with The Equity Bank in Kenya provides customers with an M-KESHO account allowing them to save, buy insurance and arrange micro-finance loans all via mobile banking. Similarly, Tigo Ghana's "Life Care" service offers Life Insurance with monthly premiums as low as GHC1 (Euro 0.54). Studies have shown that in addition to providing greater stability to low income groups, mobile banking often acts as an entry to more formal banking services. Mbiti and Weil show that the introduction of M-Pesa has led to a 58% increase in the number of Kenyans who have bank accounts. Therefore, not only do these innovative mobile services provide an immediate service to the poor, but they act as a catalyst to the on-going development in the wider economy. In 2009, the GSMA launched the Mobile Money for the Unbanked (MMU) programme, aimed at accelerating the provision of money services to those living on less than $2 per day. Supported by a grant from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, MMU has the goal of reaching 20 million people by 2012 and ultimately to make mobile money a mainstream business. m-Learning Education is widely regarded as the best long-term tool to improve the standards of living for the poor. M-learning initiatives facilitate education and learning in even the most remote locations, and provide a supplement to bricksand -mortar schools in areas where schools are sparse and access to education is limited. Low income groups' access to education is restricted by many factors including: the cost of education and expectations that children may undertake child employment, as well as language and social barriers. M-learning offers a solution to several of these key challenges. It is inclusive and non-discriminatory, it can be accessed from wherever the user wishes to learn, can be tailored to individual learning needs and can progress at each users' own pace, while fitting around income generating activities. M-learning can also help to overcome the gender inequality in many developing countries, by providing women with a safe learning environment without leaving the household or community. In addition to providing general education, m-learning is also providing valuable support to professionals in on-thejob training. Community Health Workers (CHW) in the UN's Millennium Villages in Uganda, Rwanda and Kenya have access to m-learning modules on their mobile phones. Information on reproductive health and care for new-borns are two of the subjects CHWs can download from a central database to their mobile phone. Mobile networks provide the privacy, quality of service and interoperability required to deliver this learning application, to improve the lives of the communities that the CHWs serve. m-Health Sub-Saharan Africa has the lowest average life expectancy of any region in the world at 52 years. In Lesotho, it is only 46 years. In this context, access to appropriate, quality healthcare remains a major challenge to improving the standard of living for Africa's population. Mobile technology is emerging as an important tool to improve the delivery of healthcare across Africa and is currently being used in a number of areas:
In Rwanda, MTN, Voxiva and the GSMA Development Fund have deployed a system to enable healthcare workers in the field to use mobile phones to collect data related to outbreak of contagious disease, numbers of patients, drug stocks etc. The use of mobile technology means that this information is available, and can be acted upon in real time, rather than the traditional paper-based systems which can cause errors, inefficiency, and delay. In Ghana and Nigeria, systems have been deployed to allow users to check the authenticity of pharmaceuticals. Counterfeit drugs are a major issue in Africa and the scheme, endorsed by the West Africa Health Organization, is being promoted by a number of drug companies. GlaxoSmithKline is one of the recent pharmaceutical firms to sign up to the initiative; which enable users to send a code printed on the drug packet via SMS and receive a reply, either verifying the authenticity of the drugs or giving a warning that the product may be fake and providing a helpline number to call for advice. m-Women The GSMA Development Fund formed the mWomen programme after identifying a sizeable gender gap in mobile phone ownership in middle and lower income countries. Across Africa, women are on average 23% less likely to own a mobile phone than men, meaning that women are missing out on many of the social and economic benefits that mobile connectivity brings. A recent survey of female mobile phone users in lower and middle income countries showed that 93% of women say they felt safer and more connected to friends and family with a mobile phone, whereas 85% felt more independent. 41% of women reported an increase in earnings or professional opportunities due to owning a mobile phone, a figure which rises to 55% among female business owners. In Liberia, MTN recognised that women in the market were underserved and only required regular contact with a small circle of family and friends. MTN developed new tariff plans for the "Her & Home" segment offering discounted calling during relevant times of day and preferential rates for a selected group of friends and family. The marketing of these services were also designed to appeal to the needs of women to encourage uptake. The AuthorsThe GSM Association (GSMA) is the operator-led trade association representing the global mobile industry. The GSMA represents the interests of the worldwide mobile communications industry. Spanning 219 countries, the GSMA unites nearly 800 of the world's mobile operators, as well as more than 200 companies in the broader mobile ecosystem, including handset makers, software companies, equipment providers, Internet companies, and media and entertainment organisations. The GSMA is focused on innovating, incubating and creating new opportunities for its membership, all with the end goal of driving the growth of the mobile communications industry. A.T. Kearney is a global management consulting firm that uses strategic insight, tailored solutions and a collaborative working style to help clients achieve sustainable results. Since 1926, we have been trusted advisors on CEO-agenda issues to the world's leading corporations across all major industries. A.T. Kearney's offices are located in 55 major business centres in 38 countries. The firm's telecoms practice works with the senior management teams of fixed line, mobile, cable and satellite operators as well as vendors on their most important strategic and operational challenges. AfricaFocus Bulletin is an independent electronic publication providing reposted commentary and analysis on African issues, with a particular focus on U.S. and international policies. AfricaFocus Bulletin is edited by William Minter. AfricaFocus Bulletin can be reached at africafocus@igc.org. Please write to this address to subscribe or unsubscribe to the bulletin, or to suggest material for inclusion. For more information about reposted material, please contact directly the original source mentioned. For a full archive and other resources, see http://www.africafocus.org |