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Note: This document is from the archive of the Africa Policy E-Journal, published
by the Africa Policy Information Center (APIC) from 1995 to 2001 and by Africa Action
from 2001 to 2003. APIC was merged into Africa Action in 2001. Please note that many outdated links in this archived
document may not work.
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Africa: Policy Outlook 1995
Any links to other sites in this file from 1995 are not clickable,
given the difficulty in maintaining up-to-date links in old files.
However, we hope they may still provide leads for your research.
Africa: Policy Outlook 1995
Date Distributed (ymd): 950116
AFRICA POLICY OUTLOOK 1995
The inauguration of South African President Nelson
Mandela last year symbolized the hope that Africa may
stand on the brink of a new era of peace. With peaceful
elections in Mozambique in October 1994 and a fragile but
real cease-fire in Angola in November, that vision now
seems somewhat closer to reality.
There is no guarantee that the promise will not be
shattered by renewed turmoil. And the tasks of
reconstruction and of addressing past injustices are
enormous. But as 1995 begins, this third of the
continent with 128 million people has emerged from more
than thirty years of war. Now elected governments and
grassroots groups finally can begin confronting only the
normal problems of development and inequality.
Elsewhere on the continent, the number of countries
engaged in all-out strife is less than in previous years.
Still, civil conflicts continue in Sudan, Liberia,
Somalia, and as many as ten other countries. Rwanda is
still suffering the aftermath of genocide that killed
half a million people, and new explosions of violence are
feared there or in Burundi or Zaire.
Grassroots demands for democracy and sustainable
development are growing. But transitions to democracy
are blocked or stalled in major countries such as
Nigeria and Zaire. Democratization is hampered as well
by economic policies of structural adjustment and the
increasing marginalization of Africa in the world
economy.
Election Impact
Although the Clinton Administration has been faulted by
Africa advocates for its lack of sustained attention to
Africa, the prospects after last November's elections are
even more appalling. The likely scenario is an all-out
assault on African interests by conservative Republicans,
met by continued timidity from the Administration.
Budget cutters will target U.S. financing for
peacekeeping and for sustainable development, as well as
U.S. support for agencies such as the United Nations
Development Program that are of particular importance for
African countries.
National Security Adviser Anthony Lake, visiting seven
African countries in December, warned that "Those of us
who recognize the importance of continued active
engagement and support for Africa are confronting the
reality of shrinking resources and an honest skepticism
about the return on our investments in peacekeeping and
development."
Conflict Resolution and Democratization
U.S. involvement will make a major difference this year
in a number of areas, among them:
Rwanda: In the wake of the genocide directed against
Tutsis and moderate Hutus by the former regime, the new
predominantly Tutsi coalition government faces enormous
obstacles in restoring order and economic stability. It
must control revenge killings by its own troops and
supporters, and it must cope with the security threat
posed by approximately 1.7 million Hutu refugees outside
the country, most under the control of the former regime.
The new leaders are responsible for a population of five
to six million, including over 500,000 Tutsis, both
survivors of the genocide and others returned from
decades in exile. The international community, which
failed to act promptly last year when it might have saved
hundreds of thousands of lives, is now responding only
sluggishly to multiple needs. These include
accountability for the genocide, human rights monitoring
against revenge killings, rebuilding government
institutions, and efforts to avoid new explosions of
violence. Thus far, emergency aid managed by foreign
agencies has not been accompanied by the institutional
support necessary to avoid further catastrophe.
Sudan: War continues in the southern part of the
country, where hundreds of thousands of civilians are
caught in conflict between the brutally repressive
Sudanese government and factions of the southern-based
Sudan People's Liberation Army. Sudan's neighbors have
been engaged in mediation, but the Khartoum regime has
been intransigent, and all sides are guilty of abuses
against civilians. The United States has provided
support for the mediation effort, but international
pressure on the parties is still inadequate.
Angola: Fighting declined after the signing of the
November cease-fire, despite mutual accusations of cease-
fire violations by the government and Unita. Unita
leader Jonas Savimbi did not attend the signing ceremony
in protest against government military advances
preceding the cease-fire. The timing and financing of
some 7,000 U.N. peacekeepers, most to come from southern
African states, is still uncertain. The United States,
which pressed for generous concessions to its former
client Unita during the negotiations, has a particular
responsibility to help implement the accord.
Liberia: Latest efforts to secure a stable cease-fire
have been ineffective, and the major West African
countries with peacekeeping forces there (Nigeria and
Ghana) are considering further troop withdrawals.
Pervasive insecurity affects as many as 3.5 million
people in Liberia, Sierra Leone and neighboring refugee-
receiving countries. The United States--with its
historic connection to Liberia and past support for
dictator Samuel Doe, whose regime precipitated this
crisis--has a continued responsibility to help find more
constructive ways for the international community to be
involved.
Nigeria: Despite continued protests by pro-democracy
groups, Nigeria's military ruler General Sani Abacha has
refused to abide by the results of the June 1993
presidential election. Chief Moshood Abiola, who won 59%
of the votes, is on trial for treason. The military
regime shows little sign of making concessions. The
United States has condemned the regime, but unless the
military rulers come under much stronger pressure from
outside there will be little chance of restoring
democracy peacefully. This crisis could easily escalate
in unpredictable ways. The consequences--in Africa's
most populous country--could be a disaster of monumental
proportions for Nigeria and the entire continent.
Zaire: Strongman Mobutu Sese Seko gained a new lease on
life from the crisis in Rwanda, and has also benefited
from a divided opposition. He apparently hopes to parlay
his renewed respectability and control over the army into
an election victory in 1995. New Prime Minister Kengo wa
Dondo, a World Bank favorite criticized by radical
opposition forces, is both competing with and cooperating
with Mobutu, while military abuses against civilians
continue.
Development and Relief Issues
In December, in one of the first Republican initiatives
affecting Africa, Sen. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky
announced that he will introduce legislation for radical
revisions in the foreign aid system. This is likely only
the beginning of an assault on aid to Africa from
conservative Republicans in both the House and Senate.
While Africa advocacy groups generally agree that major
reforms are needed to ensure that aid contributes to
sustainable development, Sen. McConnell's "reforms" move
in exactly the opposite direction. Among other measures,
he proposes abolishing the African Development Foundation
and eliminating the Development Fund for Africa as
earmarked allocations. The African Development
Foundation, currently modestly funded at less than $17
million a year, supports small community-based
development efforts. The Development Fund for Africa, at
$800 million a year, operates under legislative
guidelines stressing sustainable development, and ensures
a guaranteed share of allocations for African countries.
In the proposed revision, references to support for
sustainable development as an objective of aid are
eliminated. Instead, aid is contingent on "commitment to
free market principles" and direct relevance to U.S.
security. Sen. McConnell wants to increase aid to
Israel, Egypt, and Eastern Europe, while limiting
development aid to Africa to such bilateral aid as
individual states may qualify for under his guidelines.
The cost of emergency relief to Africa has been running
at more than twice that of development aid. Long-term
development which promotes food security can help avoid
even greater relief costs in the future. But such
arguments will have weight in Washington only if members
of Congress hear them loudly from their constitutents.
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Reposting or reproduction (with acknowledgement) is
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