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Africa: Food Security Report
Any links to other sites in this file from 1996 are not clickable,
given the difficulty in maintaining up-to-date links in old files.
However, we hope they may still provide leads for your research.
Africa: Food Security Report
Date Distributed (ymd): 960611
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Food and Agriculture Organization
Global Information and Early Warning System on Food and
Agriculture
Food supply situation and crop prospects in Sub-Saharan Africa
No. 2/96, May 1996
Press Release FAO/3633 29 May 1996
FAO SAYS SHARPLY HIGHER CEREAL PRICES MAKE SUB-SAHARAN
AFRICA'S FOOD SECURITY OUTLOOK PRECARIOUS
NAIROBI, 29 May (FAO) -- A United Nations Food and Agriculture
Organization (FAO) report, released in Nairobi today, calls
sub-Saharan Africa's food security outlook "precarious" as
global cereal supplies tighten and food said availabilities
shrink. Sharp increases in cereal prices on the world market
and consequent higher cost cereal imports, coupled with
balance-of-payments difficulties in food deficit African
countries, will mean that a large proportion of food imports
of the region will need to be covered by food aid.
Yet, FAO is forecasting global food aid availability in
1995/1996 at 7.6 million tons, the third consecutive annual
decline and the lowest level in 20 years.
According to the report, "There are no signs of an imminent
improvement in the food supply situation in the current year
in sub-Saharan Africa as a whole. There are currently about
22 million people in the region facing food emergencies of
varying intensity."
The report says a combination of unfavourable factors threaten
sub-Saharan Africa's progress towards food security, including
a 9.5 million ton drop in aggregate cereal production compared
to the 1994 level and international cereal prices that have
risen by more than 50 per cent over the past year. Reflecting
this sharp rise in prices, the cereal import bill for the
low-income food-deficit countries of Africa in 1995/1996 is
forecast to increase by about $1.4 billion above last year's
cost.
The head of FAO's Global Information and Early Warning System,
Abdur Rashid, which published the report, said, "Africa's
precarious food security could lead to a genuine human
tragedy". Already 210 million people in Africa suffer from
hunger and undernutrition -- 40 per cent of that continent's
population. The World Food Summit, which will convene from 13
to 17 November at FAO headquarters, will be seeking ways to
head off this tragedy by finding ways to end such food
shortages and guarantee the most basic of human rights: the
right to adequate food for all at all times.
"Water has a crucial role to play in African food security",
according to Mr. Rashid. "That's why we added a special
feature on the crucial need for increased irrigation to
improve food production in sub-Saharan Africa."
Significant expansion of irrigation in sub-Saharan Africa is
urgently needed. Compelling reasons include the overwhelming
reliance on highly variable, erratic rainfall; frequent severe
droughts; rising population pressure accompanied by declining
farm size; falling soil productivity and land degradation; and
the existence of substantial, untapped irrigation potential.
Noting "some positive signs," the report says, "The food
supply situation is generally satisfactory in western Africa,
following good harvests in most Sahelian and coastal
countries. Ethiopia, one of the major recipients of
international food aid over the last decade, will require
smaller quantities of food aid imports in 1996."
Angola, Mozambique and Rwanda are gradually beginning to reap
the dividends of peace, and a recent peace agreement in Sierra
Leone offers the hope of partial recovery of food production
and marking in 1996, it continues.
In southern Africa, the report says "Initial indications are
that the subregion's output may be above average and well up
on last year's drought-reduced level, on account of an
increase in area planted and expected above average yields".
South Africa and Zimbabwe may even become self-sufficient in
maize once again, possibly generating significant surpluses,
according to the report.
In Monrovia, Liberia, the report warns, "The volatile security
situation could undermine agricultural production in 1996 and
hamper relief operations, which are generally coordinated from
Monrovia". Continuing insecurity in some provinces in Burundi
and unfavourable weather conditions have reduced the 1996
season food production by 15 per cent below normal.
The report estimates aggregate cereal production in the Horn
of Africa in 1995/1996 at 5 per cent below the previous year's
harvest. "Reduced crops in Eritrea, Somalia and Sudan more
than offset the significant gain in production in Ethiopia.
Production also declined in Kenya, but remained above average.
Large numbers of vulnerable people and those affected by
localized crop failure require continued food assistance
throughout 1996", according to the report.
"There are an estimated 9 million people currently facing
severe food shortages in eastern Africa, including some 7
million in the Horn of Africa."
HIGHLIGHTS
Precarious food security outlook for sub-Saharan Africa, as
global cereal supplies tighten and food aid availabilities
shrink. Sharp increases in cereal prices on the world market
and consequent higher cost of cereal imports, coupled with
balance of payments difficulties in food deficit African
countries, will mean that a large proportion of food imports
of the region will need to be covered by food aid. FAO,
however, forecasts that global availability of food aid in
1995/96 will be 7.6 million tons, down for the third
consecutive year and the lowest for 20 years. The reduced
availability and continued stiff competition for food aid from
countries of eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of
Independent States suggests that Africa's minimum food needs
in 1996/97 will remain unmet. Unless exceptional food aid
allocations are made, undernutrition will rise further from
its already high level.
Slim prospects for recovery in food production in Liberia.
Recent civil disturbances in Monrovia could undermine the
fragile peace accord signed in 1995, further disrupt
agricultural production in 1996 and hamper relief operations
in all parts of the country. Domestic food production is
seriously reduced due to the effects of six years of civil
strife and the current volatile situation is not conducive to
a much needed recovery in production. Agricultural production
also continues to be hampered in Sierra Leone by insecurity
and internal conflict. Elsewhere in western Africa, the food
supply situation is generally stable, although localized food
supply difficulties persist in several traditional food
deficit areas of Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali and Niger. In the
Sahelian countries, seasonally dry conditions prevail, while
planting of the first maize crop has begun in southern areas
of countries along the Gulf of Guinea.
In the Horn of Africa, aggregate cereal output in 1995/96
estimated to be lower than last year, despite a good second
season cereal crop. A decline in the main season harvest more
than offset an increase in the second season crop output. In
Kenya and Sudan, though production declined overall it
remained close to average. In both Eritrea and Somalia,
outputs were poor and the food situation is expected to
deteriorate in coming months, unless flows of food assistance
are maintained until the next harvests later in the year.
Elsewhere in Eastern Africa, Tanzania and Uganda gathered
record harvests.
Food supply situation remaining tight in Burundi and Rwanda.
Food production in both countries remains depressed as a
result of massive population displacement. In Burundi,
continuing insecurity is also seriously disrupting
agricultural activities in several parts. In Rwanda, the
number of returnees so far remains well below expectation.
Elsewhere in the Great Lakes region, the food supply situation
remains tight, particularly in the urban areas of Zaire.
Overall, some 2.4 million refugees and displaced persons will
require continued emergency assistance through 1996 in the
Great Lakes region.
A bumper harvest in prospect in Southern Africa,
notwithstanding significant crop damage in several countries
by floods and pests. Sustained rains have favoured widespread
plantings in most countries and an above average maize harvest
is in prospect in Botswana, Lesotho, South Africa and
Zimbabwe. However, flooding in parts of Madagascar,
Mozambique, Malawi , South Africa and Zambia, together with
pest infestations, threaten crop prospects in some areas.
Early indications point to the possibility of South Africa and
Zimbabwe becoming self-sufficient in maize once again, and
possibly generating significant surpluses. However, much of
the surplus is likely to be used to replenish depleted stocks.
FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Missions are currently
visiting Angola and Mozambique to evaluate the harvest outcome
and the food supply outlook for 1996/97.
COUNTRIES FACING EXCEPTIONAL FOOD EMERGENCIES
Country******Reasons for emergency
Angola*******Population displacement
Burundi******Civil strife, displacement of rural population
Eritrea******Reduced harvest, large number of vulnerable
people
Ethiopia*****Large number of vulnerable people, localized
drought
Lesotho******Drought-reduced harvest
Liberia******Civil disturbances, Population displacement,
shortage of farm inputs
Malawi*******Drought-reduced harvest, Mozambican refugees
Mozambique***Displacement of rural population
Rwanda*******Population displacement, reduced plantings
Sierra Leone*Population displacement
Somalia******Civil strife, poor harvest
Sudan********Displaced persons, localized food deficits, civil
strife
Zaire********Rwandan refugees, civil disturbances affecting
food distribution
Zambia*******Drought-reduced harvest
FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS
Global Information and Early Warning Service
Commodities and Trade Division - FAO - ROME
Telex: 610181 FAO I - Fax: 0039 6 5225 4495
Email (Internet): GIEWS1@FAO.ORG
http://www.fao.org/
The full text of this report can be found at:
http://www.fao.org/waicent/faoinfo/economic/giews/english/
eaf/eaf9605/af9605tm.htm
Note: Type all of the URL on one line; it ends in htm, not
html.
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This material is being reposted for wider distribution by the
Africa Policy Information Center (APIC). APIC's primary
objective is to widen the policy debate in the United States
around African issues and the U.S. role in Africa, by
concentrating on providing accessible policy-relevant
information and analysis usable by a wide range of groups and
individuals. APIC is affiliated with the Washington Office on
Africa (WOA), a not-for-profit church, trade union and civil
rights group supported organization that works with Congress
on Africa-related legislation.
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